6594 · Nidec

Will it survive?

• Can it pay its interest? -20.5×
  Does not cover its interest
  Operating income (¥519.0B) ÷ interest expense ¥25.3B
  What this means

  A full year of operating profit didn't cover the interest bill. This is the zombie zone: the business depends on refinancing, asset sales, or forbearance to service its debt.

• How heavy is the debt, net of cash? ¥582.5B
  Net debt against an operating loss
  Cash ¥852.2B − debt ¥1.43T
  What this means

  Netting ¥852.2B of cash and short-term investments against ¥1.43T of debt leaves ¥582.5B owed, with no operating profit this year to measure it against — understand that combination before anything else about the company. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.

• How long is cash tied up? -18d
  Negative, funded by others
  DSO 99 + DIO 1 − DPO 118 days
  What this means

  Days cash is tied up between paying suppliers and collecting from customers. A negative cycle is a quiet moat: suppliers and customers fund the operation (Buffett's “float”), the company grows on other people's money.

Is it a good business?

• Return on invested capital 6%
  Below average through the cycle
  10-yr median, range -30%–11%; -30% latest = NOPAT (¥410.0B) ÷ invested capital ¥1.38T
  Industry peers: median 14%
  What this means

  The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 10 years (it ran -30% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.

• Owner-earnings margin 4%
  Thin, recently turned positive
  latest ¥103.7B = operating cash ¥234.2B − maintenance capex ¥130.5B; positive each of the last 3 years, after an earlier loss stretch (9-yr median 4%)
  Industry peers: median 11%
  What this means

  What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 4% of revenue this year, a 4% median across 9 years.

• Are earnings backed by cash? ¥234.2B
  Loss, but cash-generative
  Net income (¥564.6B) · cash from operations ¥234.2B
  What this means

  The company reported a net loss, so a conversion ratio isn't meaningful. What matters then is whether operations still threw off cash, here, they did.

How is the cash used?

• Where do the earnings go? 22%
  Reinvests most of it
  Dividends + buybacks ¥23.0B ÷ Owner Earnings ¥103.7B — this fiscal year
  What this means

  Of ¥103.7B Owner Earnings, ¥23.0B (22%) went back to shareholders, ¥23.0B dividends, ¥4M buybacks. Returning most of it is the mark of a mature business with little left to reinvest at a high return; reinvesting most could mean a long runway, or empire-building. The split doesn't say which; the return earned on it (see ROIC) does. This year's proportion is 22%; across the record (2018–2026) it is 63%, the capital-allocation section below.

• Investing or harvesting? —
  Not enough data
  What this means

  The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.

Durability & moat, 2017–2026

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

• Profitable years 8 of 10
  What this means

  Lost money in 2 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.

• Return on capital ≥ 15% 0 of 10 yrs
  What this means

  A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.

• Operating margin 7% → −2% (3-yr avg ends)
  What this means

  Through the cycle the operating margin slipped — about 7% early to −2% lately, median 7% — competition or costs are biting in.

• Reinvestment, incremental ROIC −22%
  What this means

  Reinvested capital came back at a negative incremental return over this window — the invested base grew while operating profit did not. The filings show where it went.

• Owner earnings growth +9%/yr
  What this means

  Owner earnings grew about 9% a year over the record.

• Worst year 2026 · −19.2% op. margin
  What this means

  Operations went underwater in 2026, understand why before trusting the good years.

• Dividend record paid
  What this means

  Paid a dividend in 10 of the years on record.