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AIIO, Robo.ai Inc.
An automaker, turning heavy plant and development spend into vehicles sold through the cycle.
The business
What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.
The business in brief
read the 10-K →What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.
- Situation
- Unprofitable. No meaningful revenue yet; the record is the cash on hand against the burn.
- What moves the needle
- Volume, mix and the cost of the platform. What decides it: units sold, how rich the mix is, and whether the fixed cost of plants and engineering is covered when demand softens. On its own account, the filing leans hardest on pricing power & competition, set against the numbers in what the filing emphasizes, below.
Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.
The record
Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.
The record, 2023–2025
realized figures from each filing · older years to the left| 2023’23 | 2024’24 | 2025’25 | TTMTTMDec 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||
| $37M | $12M | $950K | $950K | RevenueRevenue |
| ($12M) | $3M | — | — | Gross profitGross prof. |
| −31% | 22% | — | — | Gross marginGross mgn |
| ($212M) | ($95M) | ($157M) | ($157M) | Operating incomeOp. inc. |
| −567.8% | −795.1% | n/m | n/m | Operating marginOp. mgn |
| ($267M) | ($173M) | ($168M) | ($168M) | Net incomeNet inc. |
| Cash flow & returns | ||||
| ($138M) | $34M | ($5M) | ($5M) | Operating cash flowOp. cash |
| $800K | $775K | $699K | $699K | DepreciationDeprec. |
| $128M | $206M | $162M | $162M | Working capital & otherWC & other |
| $6M | $160K | — | $160K | CapexCapex |
| 14.8% | 1.3% | — | 16.8% | Capex / revenueCapex/rev |
| ($139M) | $33M | — | ($5M) | Owner earningsOwner earn. |
| −371.9% | 278.6% | — | −550.1% | Owner earnings marginOE mgn |
| ($144M) | $33M | — | ($5M) | Free cash flowFCF |
| −384.5% | 278.6% | — | −550.1% | Free cash flow marginFCF mgn |
| Balance sheet | ||||
| $23M | $148K | $4M | $4M | Cash & investmentsCash+inv |
| $2M | — | — | $2M | ReceivablesReceiv. |
| $8M | $2M | $267K | $267K | InventoryInvent. |
| $25M | $25M | $29M | $29M | Accounts payablePayables |
| ($15M) | ($23M) | ($29M) | ($27M) | Operating working capitalOper. WC |
| $83M | $33M | $8M | $8M | Current assetsCur. assets |
| $98M | $103M | $125M | $125M | Current liabilitiesCur. liab. |
| 0.8× | 0.3× | 0.1× | 0.1× | Current ratioCurr. ratio |
| $3M | $3M | $357K | $357K | Net PP&ENet PP&E |
| $166M | $41M | $8M | $8M | Total assetsAssets |
| ($23M) | ($148K) | ($4M) | ($4M) | Net debt / (cash)Net debt |
| -65.3× | -35.4× | -16.0× | -16.0× | Interest coverageInt. cov. |
| $65M | ($63M) | ($112M) | ($112M) | Shareholders’ equityEquity |
| Per share | ||||
| 14.3M | 14.6M | 15.8M | 15.8M | Shares out (diluted)Shares |
| $2.60 | $0.82 | $0.06 | $0.06 | Revenue / shareRev/sh |
| $-18.60 | $-11.82 | $-10.61 | $-10.61 | EPS (diluted)EPS |
| $-9.68 | $2.29 | — | $-0.33 | Owner earnings / shareOE/sh |
| $-10.01 | $2.29 | — | $-0.33 | Free cash flow / shareFCF/sh |
| $0.38 | $0.01 | — | $0.01 | Cap. spending / shareCapex/sh |
| $4.52 | $-4.28 | $-7.08 | $-7.08 | Book value / shareBVPS |
Net income is the accountant's number; owner earnings is the cash an owner could take out. The walk between them, off the cash-flow statement, and whether the gap is widening or holding.
In fiscal 2024 the business turned a $173M loss into $33M of owner earnings: more cash than the profit line showed, after the non-cash charges and the capital it put back in.
| FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reported net income | ($173M) | ($267M) | ($48M) |
| Depreciation & amortizationnon-cash charge added back | +$775K | +$800K | +$45K |
| Working capital & othertiming of cash in and out, other non-cash items | +$206M | +$128M | −$130M |
| Cash from operations | $34M | ($138M) | ($178M) |
| Maintenance capital expenditurethe spending needed just to hold position and volume | −$160K | −$800K | −$45K |
| Owner earnings | $33M | ($139M) | ($178M) |
| Growth capital expenditurediscretionary; spent to get bigger, not to stand still | — | −$5M | −$1M |
| Free cash flow | $33M | ($144M) | ($179M) |
| Owner-earnings marginowner earnings ÷ revenue | 279% | -372% | — |
Owner earnings is the cash an owner could pull out without starving the business: operating cash less the capital it must spend to hold its position .
Maintenance capex is estimated as depreciation where a growing business invests above it; free cash flow is the figure the scorecard's free-cash margin reads.
Quality & stewardship
Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.
Owner’s Scorecard
“We have identified material weaknesses in our internal control over financial reporting.”
The figures below are only as sound as the controls that produced them. read the note →
Will it survive?
- Can it pay its interest? -16.0×Does not cover its interestOperating income ($157M) ÷ interest expense $10M
What this means
A full year of operating profit didn't cover the interest bill. This is the zombie zone: the business depends on refinancing, asset sales, or forbearance to service its debt.
- Net cash, debt-freeCash $4M − debt $0
What this means
Cash and short-term investments exceed every dollar of debt by $4M, on net the company owes nothing, and can act from strength when others can't. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.
- How long is cash tied up? -28873dNegative, funded by othersDSO 899 + DIO 274 − DPO 30046 days
What this means
Days cash is tied up between paying suppliers and collecting from customers. A negative cycle is a quiet moat: suppliers and customers fund the operation (Buffett's “float”), the company grows on other people's money.
Is it a good business?
- Not enough dataIndustry peers: median -12%
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
- Owner-earnings margin -550%Consumes cashOwner earnings ($5M) = operating cash ($5M) − maintenance capex $160KIndustry peers: median -75%
What this means
What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's -550% of revenue this year.
- Loss, and burning cashNet income ($168M) · cash from operations ($5M)
In the filing’s words The filing discloses a material weakness in its financial controls — the reported numbers here, and the record built on them, are only as reliable as the controls that produced them.
What this means
The company reported a net loss, so a conversion ratio isn't meaningful. What matters then is whether operations still threw off cash, here, they did not.
How is the cash used?
- Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
- Investing or harvesting? 0.23×HarvestingCapex $160K ÷ depreciation $699K
What this means
Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.
Graham’s defensive tests · 0 of 3 met
Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.
- Adequate size MissRevenue ≥ $2B · $950K
What this means
Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.
- Strong liquidity MissCurrent ratio ≥ 2× · 0.06×
What this means
Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.
- Earnings stability MissA profit every year (6-yr record) · 6 loss years
What this means
Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.
- Dividend record —Uninterrupted dividends · no dividend line tagged in the data
What this means
An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. This record carries no dividends-paid line in any year — common for partnerships, whose distributions file under tags the chain doesn't read — so the criterion is withheld rather than judged on silence.
- Earnings growth —Earnings +33% over the record · —
What this means
Earnings were negative early in the record, a growth rate isn't meaningful.
- Moderate price —P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
What this means
Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $-12.81/share (latest year $-10.61), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $-7.08/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.
All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.
Current Position
as of fiscal year-end, Dec 31, 2025Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.
- Cash & short-term investments$4M
- Receivables$2M
- Inventory$267K
- Other current assets$1M
- Accounts payable$29M
- Other current liabilities$95M
From the company's latest filing.
Peers, Automobiles
The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each column names the period it is read over, and a median resting on fewer than three years carries that count beside it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each figure against.
| Company | Revenuelatest FY, USD | Gross marginmedian over the record | Op. marginmedian over the record | ROICmedian over the record | Owner earn. marginmedian over the record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSNYPolestar Automotive Holding UK PLC | $2.5B | 1% | -71.5% | — | -46% |
| LCIDLucid Group Inc. | $1.4B | 14%3y | -400.2% | -49% | -342% |
| NIUNiu Technologies | $639M | 20% | -5.2% | -9% | -0% |
| LOTLotus Technology Inc. | $519M | 15% | -85.1% | — | -75% |
| GGRGogoro Inc. | $281M | 15% | -25.3% | -15% | -34% |
| DCXDigital Currency X Technology Inc. | $4M | -5%1y | -308.5% | -3%1y | -244% |
| AIIORobo.ai Inc. | $950K | -5%2y | -681.5%2y | -227%2y | -47%2y |
| VFSVinFast Auto Ltd. | as filed: VND 44.02T | -58% | -159.7% | — | -205% |
| Group median | — | 8% | -122.4% | -15% | -61% |
The price
What a price has to assume.
What the price implies
reverse-DCFEnter the home-market price, not the US ADR quote. Robo.ai Inc. reports in USD, and every figure here (owner earnings, book value, the share count) is on that ordinary-share basis. Enter the price on the same basis: the local-exchange quote per ordinary share. A US ADR price in dollars bundles the ADR-to-ordinary ratio, so it will not reconcile with these figures and would throw the multiple off.
Robo.ai Inc. is profitable, but owner earnings are negative this year because capital spending currently outruns operating cash, a build-out, so the owner-earnings reverse-DCF has no positive base to grow. We read the price from both ends instead: type a price to see the steady-state profitability it demands, then set the mature margin you would believe and weigh the two against each other. Nothing leaves your browser unless you enter it in your notebook.
Enter a price to run it.
A dated snapshot of the price you typed, the assumptions you set, and what the page showed for them. A snapshot is never edited after it is saved. Your notebook is yours alone — the commitment states what is stored and what we will never do.
Two reads of one future. From your price: the owner earnings the company must reach, valued at a mature multiple and discounted back at your rate, expressed as the margin it implies on revenue grown at your rate. From your belief: the mature margin you would credit, set on the dial above. When the margin the price demands runs above the one you would believe, you are paying for a future taken on faith. For a deep cyclical at a trough, normalized through-cycle earnings are the better lens; this mode is for the genuinely unprofitable, and for the profitable business whose capital spending currently outruns its cash.
Manual order: ← AIFU its page in the Manual AIOS →
Industry order: ← 7272 the Automobiles chapter DCX →