AMR, Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc.

Will it survive?

• Can it pay its interest? -20.3×
  Does not cover its interest
  Operating income ($61M) ÷ interest expense $3M
  What this means

  A full year of operating profit didn't cover the interest bill. This is the zombie zone: the business depends on refinancing, asset sales, or forbearance to service its debt.

• How heavy is the debt, net of cash? +$402M
  Net cash
  Cash $366M + ST investments $50M − debt $13M
  What this means

  Cash and short-term investments exceed every dollar of debt by $402M, on net the company owes nothing, and can act from strength when others can't. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.

• How long is cash tied up? —
  Not enough data
  What this means

  The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.

Is it a good business?

• Return on invested capital 15%
  High through the cycle
  8-yr median, range -20%–129%; -4% latest = NOPAT ($48M) ÷ invested capital $1.2B
  Industry peers: median 14%
  What this means

  The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 8 years (it ran -4% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.

• Owner-earnings margin 4%
  Thin through the cycle
  9-yr median margin, range 1%–34%; latest $18M = operating cash $145M − maintenance capex $127M
  Industry peers: median 21%
  What this means

  What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 1% of revenue this year, a 4% median across 9 years. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $14M of SBC) leaves $4M.

• Are earnings backed by cash? $145M
  Loss, but cash-generative
  Net income ($62M) · cash from operations $145M
  What this means

  The company reported a net loss, so a conversion ratio isn't meaningful. What matters then is whether operations still threw off cash, here, they did.

How is the cash used?

• Where do the earnings go? 2%
  Reinvests most of it
  Dividends + buybacks $415K ÷ Owner Earnings $18M — this fiscal year
  What this means

  Of $18M Owner Earnings, $415K (2%) went back to shareholders, $415K dividends, $0 buybacks. Returning most of it is the mark of a mature business with little left to reinvest at a high return; reinvesting most could mean a long runway, or empire-building. The split doesn't say which; the return earned on it (see ROIC) does. This year's proportion is 2%; across the record (2017–2025) it is 26%, the capital-allocation section below.

• Investing or harvesting? 0.73×
  Harvesting
  Capex $127M ÷ depreciation & amortization as filed $175M
  What this means

  Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

The promise and the pay packet

• Is the buyback buying ownership, or mopping up? 0.6%
  The count is genuinely shrinking
  Stock compensation $14M (fiscal 2025), 0.6% of revenue · no repurchases · diluted shares -28.7% since 2022
  What this means

  Stock handed to employees is a real cost paid in the owner's own currency: it is charged against profit, but the shares it creates are permanent. Many companies repurchase stock at the same time, which looks like a return of capital and often is not — if the count barely moves, the cash merely cancelled the pay packet and bought the owner nothing. The three states worth telling apart are a count genuinely shrinking, a count standing still despite large repurchases, and a count rising because the issuance was never offset at all.

Graham’s defensive tests · 4 of 6 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

• Adequate size Pass
  Revenue ≥ $2B · $2.1B
  What this means

  Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.

• Strong liquidity Pass
  Current ratio ≥ 2× · 4.47×
  What this means

  Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.

• Conservative debt Pass
  Debt ≤ working capital · $13M vs $713M WC
  What this means

  Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.

• Earnings stability Miss
  A profit every year (9-yr record) · 3 loss years
  What this means

  Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.

• Dividend record Miss
  Uninterrupted dividends · 5 of 9 yrs
  What this means

  An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.

• Earnings growth Pass
  Earnings +33% over the record · +517%
  What this means

  At least a third more earnings than a decade ago, averaging three years at each end. Net income (not per-share), so stock splits don't distort it, buybacks and dilution show up in the share-count line instead.

• Moderate price —
  P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
  What this means

  Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $22.29/share (latest year $-4.87), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $121.89/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.

Durability & moat, 2017–2025

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

• Profitable years 6 of 9
  What this means

  Lost money in 3 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.

• Return on capital ≥ 15% 5 of 9 yrs
  What this means

  A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.

• Operating margin 4% → 10% (3-yr avg ends)

  In the filing’s words The margin widened even though the filing names price competition — the gain came from volume or cost, not pricing power. Read where.

  What this means

  Through the cycle the operating margin widened — about 4% early to 10% lately, median 10% — pricing power intact or improving.

• Reinvestment, incremental ROIC returns capital
  What this means

  The capital base barely grew: this business returns cash through dividends and buybacks rather than reinvesting. Judge it on the cash returned, not on compounding.

• Owner earnings growth +3%/yr
  What this means

  Owner earnings grew about 3% a year over the record.

• Worst year 2020 · −12.1% op. margin
  What this means

  Operations went underwater in 2020, understand why before trusting the good years.

• Share count +2.4%/yr
  What this means

  The share count is rising, dilution works against you on a per-share basis.

• Dividend record paid
  What this means

  Paid a dividend in 5 of the years on record.