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CDNA, CareDx Inc.
CareDx is differentiated in the molecular diagnostics market because we innovated the go-to-market model for a laboratory developed test business.
We deliver solutions designed to empower clinicians and improve patient outcomes.
The Company's integrated solutions include non-invasive molecular testing for heart, kidney, and lung transplants; laboratory products; digital health technologies; and patient solutions that support care before and after transplant.
The business
What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.
Next report By 11/8 · the 10-Q for the quarter ended late September · due within 40 days of period end · has filed ~35 days after · the wire records it on arrival
The business in brief
read the 10-K →What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.
- What it is
- Revenue is Services (72%), Patient and Digital Solutions (15%) and Products (13%).
- What moves the needle
- Operating margin has reached 12% at its best but run negative through the cycle (median −20%) on a 61% gross margin — so the question is which reading is truer: whether the median was pulled below zero by one-off charges, by the cycle, or by spending it is still growing into, and whether it settles back at a profit. Stock-based pay runs about 12% of sales, a real and recurring claim on owners that the GAAP margin understates. Read this kind of business on volume, payer mix and reimbursement. On its own account, the filing leans hardest on pricing power & competition, set against the numbers in what the filing emphasizes, below.
- Is it a good business?
- Return on capital has rarely cleared the cost of capital (median −26%, above 15% in 1 of 10 years). Owner earnings, the cash-based check, have been thin too. This is price-taker territory, where the balance sheet and the cycle matter more than any multiple; the rest is in the 10-K.
Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.
Where the money comes from
read the 10-K →Services is 72% of revenue, with Patient And Digital Solutions the other meaningful line at 15%.
- Services72%$274M
- Patient And Digital Solutions15%$57M
- Products13%$48M
From the segment footnote of the company's own 10-K. Shares are of total revenue; the profit bar shows each segment's share of segment operating profit, before unallocated corporate costs.
The record
Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.
The record, 2016–2025
realized figures from each filing · older years to the left| 2016’16 | 2017’17 | 2018’18 | 2019’19 | 2020’20 | 2021’21 | 2022’22 | 2023’23 | 2024’24 | 2025’25 | TTMTTMJun 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | |||||||||||
| $41M | $48M | $77M | $127M | $192M | $296M | $322M | $280M | $334M | $380M | $458M | RevenueRevenue |
| $30M | $27M | $44M | $82M | — | — | — | — | — | — | $406M | Gross profitGross prof. |
| 75% | 56% | 57% | 64% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 89% | Gross marginGross mgn |
| 78% | 68% | 58% | 59% | 53% | 51% | 61% | 72% | 62% | 55% | 54% | SG&A / revenueSG&A/rev |
| 30% | 26% | 19% | 24% | 25% | 26% | 28% | 29% | 22% | 19% | 17% | R&D / revenueR&D/rev |
| ($37M) | ($20M) | ($16M) | ($25M) | ($23M) | ($30M) | ($77M) | ($203M) | $41M | ($31M) | $108M | Operating incomeOp. inc. |
| −91.9% | −42.0% | −20.3% | −19.3% | −11.7% | −10.0% | −24.0% | −72.5% | 12.2% | −8.1% | 23.6% | Operating marginOp. mgn |
| ($41M) | ($57M) | ($48M) | ($24M) | ($20M) | ($32M) | ($76M) | ($190M) | $53M | ($21M) | — | Pretax incomePretax |
| ($39M) | ($55M) | ($47M) | ($22M) | ($19M) | ($31M) | ($77M) | ($190M) | $53M | ($21M) | $111M | Net incomeNet inc. |
| Cash flow & returns | |||||||||||
| ($17M) | ($14M) | ($4M) | ($3M) | $33M | ($19M) | ($25M) | ($18M) | $38M | $42M | $94M | Operating cash flowOp. cash |
| $3M | $4M | $4M | $6M | $7M | $9M | $12M | $14M | $14M | $15M | $14M | Depreciation & amortizationD&A |
| $18M | $36M | $31M | ($9M) | $22M | ($34M) | ($7M) | $108M | ($95M) | $14M | ($69M) | Working capital & otherWC & other |
| $549K | $186K | $2M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | CapexCapex |
| 1.4% | 0.4% | 2.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Capex / revenueCapex/rev |
| ($17M) | ($14M) | ($6M) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Owner earningsOwner earn. |
| −42.0% | −30.0% | −7.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Owner earnings marginOE mgn |
| ($17M) | ($14M) | ($6M) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Free cash flowFCF |
| −42.0% | −30.0% | −7.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Free cash flow marginFCF mgn |
| $21M | $6M | $692K | $18M | $0 | $15M | $610K | $7M | $0 | $0 | $0 | AcquisitionsAcquis. |
| — | — | — | — | $0 | $0 | $642K | $28M | $522K | $88M | — | BuybacksBuybacks |
| ($21M) | ($6M) | ($8M) | ($23M) | ($100M) | $48M | ($229M) | $40M | ($483K) | $2M | — | Investing cash flowInv. cash |
| $25M | $29M | $50M | ($132K) | $163M | $186M | ($5M) | ($30M) | ($6M) | ($93M) | — | Financing cash flowFin. cash |
| $83K | $106K | $2K | ($849K) | $274K | ($303K) | $23K | ($112K) | $532K | ($90K) | — | Exchange-rate effectFX |
| ($13M) | $9M | $38M | ($26M) | $96M | $214M | ($258M) | ($8M) | $32M | ($49M) | — | Change in cashΔ cash |
| -112% | -145% | -39% | -32% | -12% | -20% | -18% | -90% | 15% | -10% | 201% | ROICROIC |
| -203% | — | -49% | -22% | -7% | -7% | -18% | -73% | 14% | -7% | 26% | Return on equityROE |
| −203% | — | −49% | −22% | −7% | −7% | −18% | −73% | 14% | −7% | 26% | Retained to equityRetained/eq |
| Balance sheet | |||||||||||
| $17M | $17M | $65M | $38M | $225M | $348M | $293M | $235M | $261M | $201M | $374M | Cash & investmentsCash+inv |
| $3M | $3M | $10M | $24M | $35M | $60M | $66M | $51M | $65M | $43M | $34M | ReceivablesReceiv. |
| $5M | $6M | $5M | $6M | $10M | $17M | $19M | $19M | $20M | $27M | $7M | InventoryInvent. |
| $3M | $3M | $5M | $6M | $10M | $13M | $10M | $13M | $8M | $10M | $9M | Accounts payablePayables |
| $5M | $5M | $10M | $25M | $35M | $64M | $76M | $58M | $76M | $59M | $32M | Operating working capitalOper. WC |
| $27M | $27M | $81M | $72M | $273M | $433M | $388M | $314M | $352M | $257M | $429M | Current assetsCur. assets |
| $41M | $43M | $20M | $35M | $69M | $77M | $76M | $78M | $89M | $90M | $94M | Current liabilitiesCur. liab. |
| 0.7× | 0.6× | 4.2× | 2.1× | 3.9× | 5.6× | 5.1× | 4.0× | 3.9× | 2.9× | 4.6× | Current ratioCurr. ratio |
| $3M | $2M | $4M | $4M | $11M | $22M | $36M | $35M | $34M | $33M | — | Net PP&ENet PP&E |
| $14M | $12M | $12M | $24M | $24M | $37M | $38M | $40M | $40M | $40M | $36M | GoodwillGoodwill |
| $77M | $84M | $131M | $152M | $369M | $567M | $543M | $467M | $491M | $413M | $533M | Total assetsAssets |
| $24M | $34M | $0 | $0 | $0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | Total debtDebt |
| $7M | $17M | ($65M) | ($38M) | ($225M) | — | — | — | — | — | — | Net debt / (cash)Net debt |
| $57M | $90M | $35M | $53M | $91M | $101M | $112M | $205M | $113M | $110M | — | Total liabilitiesTotal liab. |
| $19M | ($6M) | $96M | $99M | $278M | $466M | $431M | $261M | $378M | $303M | $426M | Shareholders’ equityEquity |
| 4.9% | 3.6% | 9.3% | 17.6% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 14.5% | 17.5% | 19.9% | 9.2% | 8.1% | Stock comp / revenueSBC/rev |
| Per share | |||||||||||
| 16.5M | 23.3M | 35.6M | 42.2M | 46.5M | 52.2M | 53.3M | 53.8M | 56.6M | 53.3M | 53.3M | Shares out (diluted)Shares |
| $2.46 | $2.07 | $2.15 | $3.01 | $4.13 | $5.67 | $6.03 | $5.21 | $5.90 | $7.13 | $8.59 | Revenue / shareRev/sh |
| $-2.39 | $-2.38 | $-1.31 | $-0.52 | $-0.40 | $-0.59 | $-1.44 | $-3.54 | $0.93 | $-0.40 | $2.08 | EPS (diluted)EPS |
| $-1.03 | $-0.62 | $-0.17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Owner earnings / shareOE/sh |
| $-1.03 | $-0.62 | $-0.17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Free cash flow / shareFCF/sh |
| $0.03 | $0.01 | $0.06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Cap. spending / shareCapex/sh |
| $1.18 | $-0.26 | $2.69 | $2.35 | $5.97 | $8.92 | $8.08 | $4.86 | $6.68 | $5.69 | $7.98 | Book value / shareBVPS |
The diluted share count moved ×1.41 into 2017 — shares issued, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.
The diluted share count moved ×1.53 into 2018 — shares issued, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.
| 9-yr | 5-yr | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue / share | +12.5%/yr | +11.5%/yr |
| Capital spending / share | +31.0%/yr (2-yr) | +31.0%/yr (2-yr) |
| Book value / share | +19.1%/yr | −1.0%/yr |
The year, in the company's words
the filing →Verbatim from the 10-K's management discussion. Each sentence is shown only because its subject, direction, and stated figures check out against the filed numbers on this page. The words are the company's; the arithmetic is the record's.
- Patient And Digital Solutions+30.5%
“Patient and digital solutions revenue Patient and digital solutions revenue increased by $13.3 million, or 31%, during the year ended December 31, 2025, compared to the year ended December 31, 2024. The increase was primarily driven by higher pharmacy sales and growth in our digital solutions, particularly an expanded customer base from Ottr software.”
✓ figure matches the filed record
Where the cash went
ReinvestBuybacksDividendsAcquisitionsRetainedBeyond op. cashEach year's outlays against its operating cash: the mix, and how it drifts. The hatched cap is spending beyond that year's operating cash — financed from the balance sheet or borrowing, not operations.
Net income is the accountant's number; owner earnings is the cash an owner could take out. The walk between them, off the cash-flow statement, and whether the gap is widening or holding.
In fiscal 2018 the business turned a $47M loss into ($6M) of owner earnings: more cash than the profit line showed, after the non-cash charges and the capital it put back in.
| FY2018 | FY2017 | FY2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reported net income | ($47M) | ($55M) | ($39M) |
| Depreciation & amortizationnon-cash charge added back | +$4M | +$4M | +$3M |
| Stock-based compensationreal costnon-cash, but a real cost | +$7M | +$2M | +$2M |
| Working capital & othertiming of cash in and out, other non-cash items | +$31M | +$36M | +$18M |
| Cash from operations | ($4M) | ($14M) | ($17M) |
| Capital expenditurecash put back in to keep running and to grow | −$2M | −$186K | −$549K |
| Owner earnings | ($6M) | ($14M) | ($17M) |
| Owner-earnings marginowner earnings ÷ revenue | -8% | -30% | -42% |
Owner earnings is the cash an owner could pull out without starving the business: operating cash less the capital it must spend to hold its position . The cash-flow statement also adds stock comp back as non-cash, but it is a real cost paid in shares; counted as the expense it is (less $7M), owner earnings is nearer ($13M).
Maintenance capex is estimated as depreciation where a growing business invests above it; free cash flow is the figure the scorecard's free-cash margin reads.
Quality & stewardship
Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.
Owner’s Scorecard
Will it survive?
- No meaningful interest burdenLittle or no interest expense reported
What this means
Little or no interest expense reported, the business isn't leaning on lenders to operate.
- Net cashCash $65M + ST investments $112M − debt $34M
What this means
Cash and short-term investments exceed every dollar of debt by $143M, on net the company owes nothing, and can act from strength when others can't. It also holds $24M in longer-dated marketable securities; counting those, it sits at net cash of $167M. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.
- Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
Is it a good business?
- Below average through the cycle10-yr median, range -145%–15%; -9% latest = NOPAT ($24M) ÷ invested capital $272MIndustry peers: median -18%
What this means
The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 10 years (it ran -9% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.
- Not enough dataIndustry peers: median -31%
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
- Loss, but cash-generativeNet income ($21M) · cash from operations $42M
What this means
The company reported a net loss, so a conversion ratio isn't meaningful. What matters then is whether operations still threw off cash, here, they did.
How is the cash used?
- Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
- Investing or harvesting? —Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
The promise and the pay packet
- Modest selling costSelling and marketing $103M ÷ revenue $380M
What this means
Sales and marketing as a share of revenue, kept apart from administrative overhead because it answers a different question: how much a business must spend to win the next customer. A company whose product pulls customers in spends little here and keeps the difference; one that must buy its growth is running to stand still, and the spending has to keep rising for revenue to keep rising. Read it beside the growth rate, not alone.
- Is the buyback buying ownership, or mopping up? 9.2%The buyback only stands stillStock compensation $35M (fiscal 2025), 9.2% of revenue · repurchases $88M · diluted shares -0.1% since 2022
What this means
Stock handed to employees is a real cost paid in the owner's own currency: it is charged against profit, but the shares it creates are permanent. Many companies repurchase stock at the same time, which looks like a return of capital and often is not — if the count barely moves, the cash merely cancelled the pay packet and bought the owner nothing. The three states worth telling apart are a count genuinely shrinking, a count standing still despite large repurchases, and a count rising because the issuance was never offset at all.
Graham’s defensive tests · 2 of 4 met
Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.
- Adequate size MissRevenue ≥ $2B · $380M
What this means
Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.
- Strong liquidity PassCurrent ratio ≥ 2× · 2.86×
What this means
Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.
- Conservative debt PassDebt ≤ working capital · $34M vs $167M WC
What this means
Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.
- Earnings stability MissA profit every year (10-yr record) · 9 loss years
What this means
Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.
- Dividend record —Uninterrupted dividends · no dividend line tagged in the data
What this means
An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. This record carries no dividends-paid line in any year — common for partnerships, whose distributions file under tags the chain doesn't read — so the criterion is withheld rather than judged on silence.
- Earnings growth —Earnings +33% over the record · —
What this means
Earnings were negative early in the record, a growth rate isn't meaningful.
- Moderate price —P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
What this means
Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $-1.03/share (latest year $-0.41), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $5.86/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.
Durability & moat, 2016–2025
Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.
- Profitable years 1 of 10
What this means
Lost money in 9 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.
- Return on capital ≥ 15% 0 of 5 yrs
What this means
A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.
- Operating margin −51% → −23% (3-yr avg ends)
What this means
Through the cycle the operating margin widened — about −51% early to −23% lately, median −20% — pricing power intact or improving.
- Reinvestment, incremental ROIC −52%
What this means
Reinvested capital came back at a negative incremental return over this window — the invested base grew while operating profit did not. The filings show where it went.
- Worst year 2016 · −91.9% op. margin
What this means
Operations went underwater in 2016, understand why before trusting the good years.
All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.
Current Position
as of the latest quarter, Jun 30, 2026Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.
- Cash & short-term investments$374M
- Receivables$34M
- Inventory$7M
- Other current assets$14M
- Accounts payable$9M
- Other current liabilities$84M
From the company's latest filing.
Acquisitions & goodwill
from the balance sheet & the 10-year cash-flow recordGoodwill grows only when a company acquires and falls only when it concedes it overpaid. The size of that bet, the cash put into buying rather than building, and how much has already been written off.
$15M written down across 2 years (2016, 2017): goodwill the company has already conceded it overpaid for, charged against earnings. That is roughly 22% of the cash it put into acquisitions over the span. A write-down costs no cash (the cash went out when the deal was signed), but it is management marking its own past judgment to market.
Beside that spending sits $46M of cumulative amortization of acquired intangibles charged against earnings since fiscal 2015 — the purchase price of past deals, expensed over time.
Goodwill, acquired intangibles and equity from the latest balance sheet; acquisition spend and amortization summed across the company's full tagged history, write-downs across the 10-year record, from the company's own filings.
Management, ownership & pay
read the proxy →From the proxy: how much of the business the people running it own, and how they are paid, beside what the business earned for its owners in the same years.
| Fiscal year | Pay, as filed | “Actually paid” | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $7.1M | −$50k | ($31M) |
| 2022 | $12.8M | −$648k | ($77M) |
| 2023 | $3.1M | $1.9M | ($190M) |
| 2023 | $10.6M | $6.7M | ($190M) |
| 2024 | $9.4M | $24.2M | $53M |
| 2024 | $2.9M | $7.4M | $53M |
| 2025 | $7.2M | $3.5M | ($21M) |
Both pay figures are the company’s own, from the pay-versus-performance table its proxy statement files. “As filed” is the Summary Compensation Table total: salary, bonus, and equity awards at their value on the day of grant. “Actually paid” is the SEC’s prescribed recalculation, which re-marks those equity awards to what they became as they vested; it can swing far above or below the filed figure in either direction, and negative years occur. Net income is the whole business's, as filed, for the same fiscal years.
- Insider ownership2.4%
The stake all directors and executive officers hold together, per the 2026 proxy: skin in the game, the first thing Munger reads.
- CEO pay ratio48:1
What the chief earns for every dollar the median employee makes, per the 2026 proxy. A high ratio alone settles nothing; some businesses are genuinely top-heavy in scarce skill. A runaway figure is where Buffett starts asking whether the board is doing its job.
- Stock-based compensation$35M
The slice of the business handed to employees in shares in fiscal 2025, 9.2% of revenue. Buffett's oldest accounting fight: this is compensation, compensation is an expense, real whether or not the headline earnings admit it. One trap: the cash-flow statement adds SBC back, so the operating cash, and the owner earnings drawn from it, are flattered by exactly this amount; counted as the cost it is, what an owner keeps is lower.
What an owner would ask, FY2025
read the 10-K →- Which reported numbers are a judgment call?Management names Revenue recognition, Acquisitions, Stock compensation, Contingencies as critical estimates
each rests partly on management's judgment; the filing's note sets out the assumptionsverify →
The questions the record and the charts do not answer on their own; each carries the figure and the place to look.
Peers, Life Sciences Tools & Services
The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each column names the period it is read over, and a median resting on fewer than three years carries that count beside it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each figure against.
| Company | Revenuelatest FY, USD | Gross marginmedian over the record | Op. marginmedian over the record | ROICmedian over the record | Owner earn. marginmedian over the record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GHGuardant Health Inc. | $982M | 61%3y | -101.3% | -30% | -62% |
| CAICaris Life Sciences Inc. | $812M | — | -62.4% | — | -62% |
| VCYTVeracyte Inc. | $517M | 64% | -24.0% | -11% | -8% |
| CDNACareDx Inc. | $380M | 61%4y | -19.8% | -26% | -30%3y |
| CSTLCastle Biosciences Inc. | $344M | 81% | -14.6% | -18% | -0% |
| FLGTFulgent Genetics Inc. | $323M | 55% | -10.0% | -3% | 7% |
| BLLNBillionToOne Inc. | $305M | 53% | -30.9% | — | -31% |
| GRALGRAIL Inc. Common Stock | $147M | — | -382.0%1y | -47%2y | -204%1y |
| Group median | — | 61% | -27.4% | -22% | -30% |
The price
What a price has to assume.
What the price implies
reverse-DCFCareDx Inc. is profitable, but its owner-earnings base could not be formed from this filing’s tagged data (operating cash flow or capital spending is missing), so the owner-earnings reverse-DCF has no base to grow. We read the price from both ends instead: type a price to see the profitability it demands, then set the mature margin you would believe and weigh the two against each other. Nothing leaves your browser unless you enter it in your notebook.
Revenue, delivered11%/yr’20→’25
Enter a price to run it.
A dated snapshot of the price you typed, the assumptions you set, and what the page showed for them. A snapshot is never edited after it is saved. Your notebook is yours alone — the commitment states what is stored and what we will never do.
Two reads of one future. From your price: the owner earnings the company must reach, valued at a mature multiple and discounted back at your rate, expressed as the margin it implies on revenue grown at your rate. From your belief: the mature margin you would credit, set on the dial above. When the margin the price demands runs above the one you would believe, you are paying for a future taken on faith. For a deep cyclical at a trough, normalized through-cycle earnings are the better lens; this mode is for the genuinely unprofitable, and for the profitable business whose capital spending currently outruns its cash.
Manual order: ← CDE its page in the Manual CDNL →
Industry order: ← CAI the Life Sciences Tools & Services chapter CRL →