CIVI, Civitas Resources

Will it survive?

• Can it pay its interest? 0.2×
  Does not cover its interest
  Operating income $112M ÷ interest expense $456M
  What this means

  A full year of operating profit didn't cover the interest bill. This is the zombie zone: the business depends on refinancing, asset sales, or forbearance to service its debt.

• How heavy is the debt, net of cash? $5.4B · 48.1× operating profit
  Heavy net debt
  Cash $76M − debt $5.5B
  What this means

  Netting $76M of cash and short-term investments against $5.5B of debt leaves $5.4B owed, about 48.1× a year's operating profit (48.7× on the gross debt, before the cash). Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.

• How long is cash tied up? —
  Not enough data
  What this means

  The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.

Is it a good business?

• Return on invested capital 9%
  Solid through the cycle
  7-yr median, range 4%–25%; 1% latest = NOPAT $87M ÷ invested capital $12.0B
  Industry peers: median 3%
  What this means

  The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 7 years (it ran 1% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.

• Owner-earnings margin 60%
  High through the cycle
  7-yr median margin, range 30%–71%; latest $2.8B = operating cash $2.9B − maintenance capex $47M
  Industry peers: median 24%
  What this means

  What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 54% of revenue this year, a 60% median across 7 years. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $48M of SBC) leaves $2.8B.

• Are earnings backed by cash? 3.42×
  Cash-backed
  Cash from ops $2.9B ÷ net income $839M
  What this means

  How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.

How is the cash used?

• Where do the earnings go? 33%
  Reinvests most of it
  Dividends + buybacks $921M ÷ Owner Earnings $2.8B — this fiscal year
  What this means

  Of $2.8B Owner Earnings, $921M (33%) went back to shareholders, $494M dividends, $427M buybacks. Net of $48M stock comp, the real buyback was about $379M. Returning most of it is the mark of a mature business with little left to reinvest at a high return; reinvesting most could mean a long runway, or empire-building. The split doesn't say which; the return earned on it (see ROIC) does. This year's proportion is 33%; across the record (2018–2024) it is 31%, the capital-allocation section below.

• Investing or harvesting? 0.02×
  Harvesting
  Capex $47M ÷ depreciation & amortization as filed $2.1B
  What this means

  Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

The promise and the pay packet

• Is the buyback buying ownership, or mopping up? 0.9%
  Stock pay, share count unread
  Stock compensation $48M (fiscal 2024), 0.9% of revenue · repurchases $427M · the share count is not comparable across these years (a split or a first listing sits in the record), so the drift is withheld
  What this means

  Stock handed to employees is a real cost paid in the owner's own currency: it is charged against profit, but the shares it creates are permanent. Many companies repurchase stock at the same time, which looks like a return of capital and often is not — if the count barely moves, the cash merely cancelled the pay packet and bought the owner nothing. The three states worth telling apart are a count genuinely shrinking, a count standing still despite large repurchases, and a count rising because the issuance was never offset at all.

The reserves, and what it costs to keep them

• How many years of production are left? 6.3 years
  Under a decade
  Proved reserves ÷ the year's production, both as the filer reports them
  What this means

  Proved reserves divided by a year of production. It is not a prediction and not a life expectancy: reserves are added every year and this figure moves with the price deck the SEC mandates for booking them. Read it as the runway the company is currently operating on. A short one means the drill bit has to keep working merely to stand still; a very long one is worth a question, since reserves booked far into the future carry the most estimating and the least certainty.

• How much of it is still only a plan? 17%
  Almost all of it is producing
  Proved undeveloped reserves ÷ total proved reserves
  What this means

  Proved reserves come in two kinds and the difference matters. Developed reserves sit behind wells that already exist. Undeveloped reserves are booked on management's intent to drill them within five years, and turning them into production requires capital the company has not yet spent. A high share is not by itself a fault, since a company with a long drilling inventory has somewhere to put its money, but it does mean the reserve figure describes a plan as much as an asset, and the plan can be revised away.

Graham’s defensive tests · 3 of 6 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

• Adequate size Pass
  Revenue ≥ $2B · $5.2B
  What this means

  Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.

• Strong liquidity Miss
  Current ratio ≥ 2× · 0.45×
  What this means

  Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.

• Conservative debt Miss
  Debt ≤ working capital · $5.5B vs ($1.2B) WC
  What this means

  Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.

• Earnings stability Pass
  A profit every year (7-yr record) · no losses
  What this means

  Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.

• Dividend record Miss
  Uninterrupted dividends · 4 of 7 yrs
  What this means

  An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.

• Earnings growth Pass
  Earnings +33% over the record · +747%
  What this means

  At least a third more earnings than a decade ago, averaging three years at each end. Net income (not per-share), so stock splits don't distort it, buybacks and dilution show up in the share-count line instead.

• Moderate price —
  P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
  What this means

  Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $11.22/share (latest year $9.83), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $77.71/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.

Durability & moat, 2018–2024

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

• Profitable years 7 of 7
  What this means

  Never lost money over the record, the earnings stability Graham insisted on.

• Return on capital ≥ 15% 1 of 7 yrs
  What this means

  A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.

• Operating margin 28% → 36% (3-yr avg ends)
  What this means

  Through the cycle the operating margin widened — about 28% early to 36% lately, median 30% — pricing power intact or improving.

• Reinvestment, incremental ROIC 14%
  What this means

  Reinvested capital came back at only a modest incremental return — near the cost of capital, where extra growth adds little per dollar. The record shows whether it is a soft stretch or a thinning moat.

• Owner earnings growth +57%/yr
  What this means

  Owner earnings grew about 57% a year over the record.

• Worst year 2020 · 20.6% op. margin
  What this means

  Stayed profitable even in its hardest year, the resilience that survives recessions.

• Dividend record rising
  What this means

  Paid and raised the dividend across the record, the continuity Graham prized.