FLUT, Flutter Entertainment plc

Will it survive?

• Can it pay its interest? —
  Interest expense not tagged in the data
  What this means

  No usable interest-expense line was tagged in the filing data, but the balance sheet carries real net debt — so the interest burden here is unknown, not absent. Read the debt on the net-debt check below.

• How heavy is the debt, net of cash? $10.5B · 290.9× operating profit
  Heavy net debt
  Cash $1.8B − debt $12.3B
  What this means

  Netting $1.8B of cash and short-term investments against $12.3B of debt leaves $10.5B owed, about 290.9× a year's operating profit (341.6× on the gross debt, before the cash). Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.

• How long is cash tied up? -11d
  Negative, funded by others
  DSO 4 + DIO 0 − DPO 16 days
  What this means

  Days cash is tied up between paying suppliers and collecting from customers. A negative cycle is a quiet moat: suppliers and customers fund the operation (Buffett's “float”), the company grows on other people's money. (Little or no inventory, a services / asset-light model, so the inventory leg is ~0.)

Is it a good business?

• Return on invested capital -0%
  Below average through the cycle
  4-yr median, range -3%–5%; 0% latest = NOPAT $28M ÷ invested capital $19.5B
  Industry peers: median 8%
  What this means

  The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 4 years (it ran 0% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.

• Owner-earnings margin 8%
  Solid through the cycle
  4-yr median margin, range 7%–11%; latest $1.1B = operating cash $1.2B − maintenance capex $105M
  Industry peers: median 13%
  What this means

  What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 7% of revenue this year, a 8% median across 4 years. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $246M of SBC) leaves $833M.

• Are earnings backed by cash? $1.2B
  Loss, but cash-generative
  Net income ($310M) · cash from operations $1.2B
  What this means

  The company reported a net loss, so a conversion ratio isn't meaningful. What matters then is whether operations still threw off cash, here, they did.

How is the cash used?

• Where do the earnings go? 104%
  Returned more than it generated
  Dividends + buybacks $1.1B ÷ Owner Earnings $1.1B — this fiscal year
  What this means

  The company returned more than it generated: against $1.1B of Owner Earnings, $1.1B (104%) went back to shareholders, $0 dividends, $1.1B buybacks — the excess came from the balance sheet or borrowing, not the year's operations. Net of $246M stock comp, the real buyback was about $877M. Sustained, that pattern draws down cash or adds debt; the net-debt line above shows where it stands. This year's proportion is 104%; across the record (2022–2025) it is 36%, the capital-allocation section below.

• Investing or harvesting? 0.07×
  Harvesting
  Capex $105M ÷ depreciation & amortization as filed $1.5B
  What this means

  Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

The promise and the pay packet

• What does winning a customer cost? 22%
  Modest selling cost
  Selling and marketing $3.7B ÷ revenue $16.4B
  What this means

  Sales and marketing as a share of revenue, kept apart from administrative overhead because it answers a different question: how much a business must spend to win the next customer. A company whose product pulls customers in spends little here and keeps the difference; one that must buy its growth is running to stand still, and the spending has to keep rising for revenue to keep rising. Read it beside the growth rate, not alone.

• Is the buyback buying ownership, or mopping up? 1.5%
  The buyback only stands still
  Stock compensation $246M (fiscal 2025), 1.5% of revenue · repurchases $1.1B · diluted shares +0.0% since 2022
  What this means

  Stock handed to employees is a real cost paid in the owner's own currency: it is charged against profit, but the shares it creates are permanent. Many companies repurchase stock at the same time, which looks like a return of capital and often is not — if the count barely moves, the cash merely cancelled the pay packet and bought the owner nothing. The three states worth telling apart are a count genuinely shrinking, a count standing still despite large repurchases, and a count rising because the issuance was never offset at all.

Graham’s defensive tests · 1 of 3 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

• Adequate size Pass
  Revenue ≥ $2B · $16.4B
  What this means

  Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.

• Strong liquidity Miss
  Current ratio ≥ 2× · 0.95×
  What this means

  Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.

• Conservative debt Miss
  Debt ≤ working capital · $12.3B vs ($247M) WC
  What this means

  Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.

• Moderate price —
  P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
  What this means

  Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $-2.86/share (latest year $-1.79), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $52.08/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.

Durability & moat, 2022–2025

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

• Profitable years 1 of 4
  What this means

  Lost money in 3 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.

• Return on capital ≥ 15% 0 of 3 yrs
  What this means

  A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.

• Operating margin −3% → 3% (2-yr avg ends)
  What this means

  Through the cycle the operating margin widened — about −3% early to 3% lately, median −1% — pricing power intact or improving.

• Reinvestment, incremental ROIC returns capital
  What this means

  The capital base barely grew: this business returns cash through dividends and buybacks rather than reinvesting. Judge it on the cash returned, not on compounding.

• Owner earnings growth +12%/yr
  What this means

  Owner earnings grew about 12% a year over the record.

• Worst year 2023 · −4.7% op. margin
  What this means

  Operations went underwater in 2023, understand why before trusting the good years.

• Share count +0.0%/yr
  What this means

  Roughly flat share count, little dilution, little buyback.