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RUM, Rumble Inc.
A software business, earning high margins on code once it is written.
The business
What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.
Next report By 11/13 · the 10-Q for the quarter ended late September · due within 45 days of period end · has filed ~42 days after · the wire records it on arrival
The business in brief
read the 10-K →What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.
- Situation
- Unprofitable. No sustained operating profit across the record; an earnings multiple has nothing to rest on. What the record does show is revenue, the gross-margin trajectory, and the burn against the cash on hand. Net current asset value. Current assets alone exceed every liability combined, and the surplus is most of the balance sheet: the shape Graham called a net-net.
- What moves the needle
- Operating margin has run around −126% through the cycle on a −45% gross margin, the operating line deeply negative — so the lever is the path to a margin at all: revenue growth against the cost curve and the cash runway, not the level of a margin that isn't there yet. Stock-based pay runs about 20% of sales, a real and recurring claim on owners that the GAAP margin understates. Read this kind of business on retention and the cost of growth. On its own account, the filing leans hardest on concentrated dependence, set against the numbers in what the filing emphasizes, below.
- Is it a good business?
- Return on capital has rarely cleared the cost of capital (median −322%, above 15% in 0 of 3 years). Owner earnings, the cash-based check, have been thin too. This is price-taker territory, where the balance sheet and the cycle matter more than any multiple; the rest is in the 10-K.
Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.
The record
Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.
The record, 2021–2025
realized figures from each filing · older years to the left| 2021’21 | 2022’22 | 2023’23 | 2024’24 | 2025’25 | TTMTTMJun 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| $9M | $39M | $81M | $95M | $101M | $118M | RevenueRevenue |
| 64% | 56% | 62% | 57% | 72% | 67% | SG&A / revenueSG&A/rev |
| 17% | 16% | 19% | 20% | 19% | 18% | R&D / revenueR&D/rev |
| ($11M) | ($36M) | ($136M) | ($131M) | ($127M) | ($174M) | Operating incomeOp. inc. |
| −111.1% | −90.4% | −167.4% | −137.0% | −125.9% | −147.5% | Operating marginOp. mgn |
| ($14M) | ($12M) | ($120M) | ($340M) | ($82M) | — | Pretax incomePretax |
| ($13M) | ($11M) | ($116M) | ($338M) | ($82M) | ($158M) | Net incomeNet inc. |
| Cash flow & returns | ||||||
| ($5M) | ($32M) | ($93M) | ($87M) | ($70M) | ($106M) | Operating cash flowOp. cash |
| $154K | $2M | $5M | $14M | $15M | $28M | Depreciation & amortizationD&A |
| $7M | ($24M) | $2M | $216M | ($27M) | $2M | Working capital & otherWC & other |
| $1M | $9M | $15M | $3M | $4M | $47M | CapexCapex |
| 14.2% | 21.7% | 18.0% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 39.9% | Capex / revenueCapex/rev |
| ($5M) | ($34M) | ($98M) | ($90M) | ($74M) | ($134M) | Owner earningsOwner earn. |
| −57.7% | −85.9% | −120.7% | −93.9% | −74.0% | −114.0% | Owner earnings marginOE mgn |
| ($7M) | ($41M) | ($107M) | ($90M) | ($74M) | ($153M) | Free cash flowFCF |
| −70.3% | −103.7% | −132.8% | −93.9% | −74.0% | −130.1% | Free cash flow marginFCF mgn |
| $0 | — | $0 | $2M | — | $2M | AcquisitionsAcquis. |
| $2M | ($10M) | ($24M) | ($16M) | ($26M) | — | Investing cash flowInv. cash |
| $49M | $333M | ($2M) | ($2M) | $220M | — | Financing cash flowFin. cash |
| $45M | $290M | ($119M) | ($104M) | $124M | — | Change in cashΔ cash |
| — | -852% | -322% | — | -271% | -9% | ROICROIC |
| -44% | -3% | -46% | — | -30% | -11% | Return on equityROE |
| −44% | −3% | −46% | — | −30% | −11% | Retained to equityRetained/eq |
| Balance sheet | ||||||
| $47M | $338M | $219M | $114M | $238M | $203M | Cash & investmentsCash+inv |
| $1M | $5M | $5M | $10M | $12M | $51M | ReceivablesReceiv. |
| $7M | $14M | $25M | $2M | $6M | $29M | Accounts payablePayables |
| ($6M) | ($10M) | ($19M) | $8M | $6M | $22M | Operating working capitalOper. WC |
| $49M | $352M | $238M | $136M | $265M | $417M | Current assetsCur. assets |
| $7M | $16M | $34M | $217M | $45M | $197M | Current liabilitiesCur. liab. |
| 6.8× | 22.1× | 7.1× | 0.6× | 5.8× | 2.1× | Current ratioCurr. ratio |
| $1M | $9M | $20M | $17M | $16M | — | Net PP&ENet PP&E |
| $663K | $663K | $11M | $11M | $11M | $415M | GoodwillGoodwill |
| $56M | $367M | $296M | $195M | $337M | $2.1B | Total assetsAssets |
| $9M | $27M | $44M | $258M | $62M | — | Total liabilitiesTotal liab. |
| $30M | $340M | $252M | ($63M) | $275M | $1.4B | Shareholders’ equityEquity |
| 14.9% | 4.9% | 20.1% | 22.5% | 23.7% | 18.8% | Stock comp / revenueSBC/rev |
| Per share | ||||||
| 211M | 242M | 201M | 204M | 255M | 273M | Shares out (diluted)Shares |
| $0.04 | $0.16 | $0.40 | $0.47 | $0.40 | $0.43 | Revenue / shareRev/sh |
| $-0.06 | $-0.05 | $-0.58 | $-1.66 | $-0.32 | $-0.58 | EPS (diluted)EPS |
| $-0.03 | $-0.14 | $-0.49 | $-0.44 | $-0.29 | $-0.49 | Owner earnings / shareOE/sh |
| $-0.03 | $-0.17 | $-0.53 | $-0.44 | $-0.29 | $-0.56 | Free cash flow / shareFCF/sh |
| $0.01 | $0.04 | $0.07 | $0.01 | $0.02 | $0.17 | Cap. spending / shareCapex/sh |
| $0.14 | $1.40 | $1.25 | $-0.31 | $1.08 | $5.23 | Book value / shareBVPS |
| 4-yr | 5-yr | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue / share | +72.3%/yr | +72.3%/yr (4-yr) |
| Capital spending / share | +26.0%/yr | +26.0%/yr (4-yr) |
| Book value / share | +65.6%/yr | +65.6%/yr (4-yr) |
Net income is the accountant's number; owner earnings is the cash an owner could take out. The walk between them, off the cash-flow statement, and whether the gap is widening or holding.
In fiscal 2025 the business turned a $82M loss into ($74M) of owner earnings: more cash than the profit line showed, after the non-cash charges and the capital it put back in.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported net income | ($82M) | ($338M) | ($116M) | ($11M) | ($13M) |
| Depreciation & amortizationnon-cash charge added back | +$15M | +$14M | +$5M | +$2M | +$154K |
| Stock-based compensationreal costnon-cash, but a real cost | +$24M | +$22M | +$16M | +$2M | +$1M |
| Working capital & othertiming of cash in and out, other non-cash items | −$27M | +$216M | +$2M | −$24M | +$7M |
| Cash from operations | ($70M) | ($87M) | ($93M) | ($32M) | ($5M) |
| Maintenance capital expenditurethe spending needed just to hold position and volume | −$4M | −$3M | −$5M | −$2M | −$154K |
| Owner earnings | ($74M) | ($90M) | ($98M) | ($34M) | ($5M) |
| Growth capital expenditurediscretionary; spent to get bigger, not to stand still | — | — | −$10M | −$7M | −$1M |
| Free cash flow | ($74M) | ($90M) | ($107M) | ($41M) | ($7M) |
| Owner-earnings marginowner earnings ÷ revenue | -74% | -94% | -121% | -86% | -58% |
Owner earnings is the cash an owner could pull out without starving the business: operating cash less the capital it must spend to hold its position . The cash-flow statement also adds stock comp back as non-cash, but it is a real cost paid in shares; counted as the expense it is (less $24M), owner earnings is nearer ($98M).
Maintenance capex is estimated as depreciation where a growing business invests above it; free cash flow is the figure the scorecard's free-cash margin reads.
Quality & stewardship
Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.
Owner’s Scorecard
Will it survive?
- No meaningful interest burdenLittle or no interest expense reported
What this means
Little or no interest expense reported, the business isn't leaning on lenders to operate.
- Net cashCash $238M − debt $836K
What this means
Cash and short-term investments exceed every dollar of debt by $237M, on net the company owes nothing, and can act from strength when others can't. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.
- TightDSO 43 + DIO 0 − DPO 20 days
What this means
Days cash is tied up between paying suppliers and collecting from customers. Lower is better; a long cycle means growth itself eats cash. (Little or no inventory, a services / asset-light model, so the inventory leg is ~0.)
Is it a good business?
- Below average through the cycle3-yr median, range -852%–-271%; -265% latest = NOPAT ($100M) ÷ invested capital $38MIndustry peers: median -7%
What this means
The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 3 years (it ran -265% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.
- Consumes cash through the cycle5-yr median margin, range -121%–-58%; latest ($74M) = operating cash ($70M) − maintenance capex $4MIndustry peers: median -1%
What this means
What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's -74% of revenue this year, a -86% median across 5 years. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $24M of SBC) leaves ($98M).
- Are earnings backed by cash? ($70M)Loss, and burning cashNet income ($82M) · cash from operations ($70M)
What this means
The company reported a net loss, so a conversion ratio isn't meaningful. What matters then is whether operations still threw off cash, here, they did not.
How is the cash used?
- No surplus to allocate
What this means
The business didn't generate positive Owner Earnings this year, so any distributions came from the balance sheet or borrowing, not from operations.
- Investing or harvesting? 0.28×HarvestingCapex $4M ÷ depreciation & amortization as filed $15M
What this means
Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.
Graham’s defensive tests · 2 of 4 met
Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.
- Adequate size MissRevenue ≥ $2B · $101M
What this means
Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.
- Strong liquidity PassCurrent ratio ≥ 2× · 5.84×
What this means
Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.
- Conservative debt PassDebt ≤ working capital · $836K vs $219M WC
What this means
Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.
- Earnings stability MissA profit every year (5-yr record) · 5 loss years
What this means
Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.
- Dividend record —Uninterrupted dividends · no dividend line tagged in the data
What this means
An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. This record carries no dividends-paid line in any year — common for partnerships, whose distributions file under tags the chain doesn't read — so the criterion is withheld rather than judged on silence.
- Moderate price —P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
What this means
Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $-0.66/share (latest year $-0.30), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $1.01/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.
Durability & moat, 2021–2025
Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.
- Profitable years 0 of 5
What this means
Lost money in 5 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.
- Operating margin −101% → −131% (2-yr avg ends)
What this means
Through the cycle the operating margin slipped — about −101% early to −131% lately, median −126% — competition or costs are biting in.
- Reinvestment, incremental ROIC returns capital
What this means
The capital base barely grew: this business returns cash through dividends and buybacks rather than reinvesting. Judge it on the cash returned, not on compounding.
- Worst year 2023 · −167.4% op. margin
What this means
Operations went underwater in 2023, understand why before trusting the good years.
- Share count +4.8%/yr
What this means
The share count is rising, dilution works against you on a per-share basis.
All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.
Current Position
as of the latest quarter, Jun 30, 2026Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.
- Cash & short-term investments$203M
- Receivables$51M
- Other current assets$163M
- Accounts payable$29M
- Other current liabilities$168M
From the company's latest filing.
Management, ownership & pay
read the proxy →From the proxy: how much of the business the people running it own, and how they are paid.
- Stock-based compensation$24M
The slice of the business handed to employees in shares in fiscal 2025, 23.7% of revenue. Buffett's oldest accounting fight: this is compensation, compensation is an expense, real whether or not the headline earnings admit it. One trap: the cash-flow statement adds SBC back, so the operating cash, and the owner earnings drawn from it, are flattered by exactly this amount; counted as the cost it is, what an owner keeps is lower.
What an owner would ask, FY2025
read the 10-K →- Which reported numbers are a judgment call?Management names Revenue recognition, Income taxes, Stock compensation as critical estimates
each rests partly on management's judgment; the filing's note sets out the assumptionsverify →
The questions the record and the charts do not answer on their own; each carries the figure and the place to look.
Peers, Interactive Media & Platforms
The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each column names the period it is read over, and a median resting on fewer than three years carries that count beside it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each figure against.
| Company | Revenuelatest FY, USD | Gross marginmedian over the record | Op. marginmedian over the record | ROICmedian over the record | Owner earn. marginmedian over the record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOYUDouYu International Holdings Limited ADS | $566M | 12% | -3.0% | -7% | -1% |
| XNETXunlei Limited | $460M | 46% | -7.5% | -8% | 6% |
| SOGPSound Group Inc. | $460M | 28% | -5.9% | — | -2% |
| GRNDGrindr Inc. | $440M | — | 21.4% | 22% | 26% |
| YALAYalla Group Limited | $342M | 65% | 33.1% | 46% | 48% |
| NXDRNextdoor Holdings Inc. | $258M | 83% | -55.8% | -24% | -28% |
| RUMRumble Inc. | $101M | -63%2y | -125.9% | -322% | -86% |
| JGAurora Mobile Limited | $56M | 55% | -23.5% | -78% | -7% |
| Group median | — | 46% | -6.7% | -8% | -2% |
The price
What a price has to assume.
What the price implies
reverse-DCFRumble Inc. is profitable, but owner earnings are negative this year because capital spending currently outruns operating cash, a build-out, so the owner-earnings reverse-DCF has no positive base to grow. We read the price from both ends instead: type a price to see the steady-state profitability it demands, then set the mature margin you would believe and weigh the two against each other. Nothing leaves your browser unless you enter it in your notebook.
Revenue, delivered75%/yr’21→’25
Enter a price to run it.
A dated snapshot of the price you typed, the assumptions you set, and what the page showed for them. A snapshot is never edited after it is saved. Your notebook is yours alone — the commitment states what is stored and what we will never do.
Two reads of one future. From your price: the owner earnings the company must reach, valued at a mature multiple and discounted back at your rate, expressed as the margin it implies on revenue grown at your rate. From your belief: the mature margin you would credit, set on the dial above. When the margin the price demands runs above the one you would believe, you are paying for a future taken on faith. For a deep cyclical at a trough, normalized through-cycle earnings are the better lens; this mode is for the genuinely unprofitable, and for the profitable business whose capital spending currently outruns its cash.
Manual order: ← RTX its page in the Manual RUMBW →
Industry order: ← PPLI the Interactive Media & Platforms chapter RUMBW →