VNOM, Viper Energy

Will it survive?

• Can it pay its interest? —
  Interest expense not tagged in the data
  What this means

  No usable interest-expense line was tagged in the filing data, but the balance sheet carries real net debt — so the interest burden here is unknown, not absent. Read the debt on the net-debt check below.

• How heavy is the debt, net of cash? $2.2B
  Net debt against an operating loss
  Cash $13M − debt $2.2B
  What this means

  Netting $13M of cash and short-term investments against $2.2B of debt leaves $2.2B owed, with no operating profit this year to measure it against — understand that combination before anything else about the company. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.

• How long is cash tied up? —
  Not enough data
  What this means

  The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.

Is it a good business?

• Return on invested capital 18%
  High through the cycle
  3-yr median, range -2%–21%; -2% latest = NOPAT ($111M) ÷ invested capital $6.6B
  Industry peers: median 17%
  What this means

  The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 3 years (it ran -2% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.

• Owner-earnings margin —
  Not enough data
  Industry peers: median 64%
  What this means

  The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.

• Are earnings backed by cash? $1.1B
  Loss, but cash-generative
  Net income ($68M) · cash from operations $1.1B
  What this means

  The company reported a net loss, so a conversion ratio isn't meaningful. What matters then is whether operations still threw off cash, here, they did.

How is the cash used?

• Where do the earnings go? —
  Not enough data
  What this means

  The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.

• Investing or harvesting? —
  Not enough data
  What this means

  The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.

The reserves, and what it costs to keep them

• How many years of production are left? 11.7 years
  A long runway
  Proved reserves ÷ the year's production, both as the filer reports them
  What this means

  Proved reserves divided by a year of production. It is not a prediction and not a life expectancy: reserves are added every year and this figure moves with the price deck the SEC mandates for booking them. Read it as the runway the company is currently operating on. A short one means the drill bit has to keep working merely to stand still; a very long one is worth a question, since reserves booked far into the future carry the most estimating and the least certainty.

• Did it replace what it sold? 126%
  Replaced what it produced
  Discoveries and extensions, plus revisions to earlier estimates, ÷ the year's production
  What this means

  Every barrel produced is a barrel gone, so a producer is only durable if it finds more than it sells. This counts what the drill bit added, discoveries and extensions, together with revisions to earlier estimates. The revisions belong here even when they are negative: a company that quietly marks down last year's bookings has told an owner something about how those bookings were made, and a figure that showed only the additions would flatter exactly the companies that most need watching. Reserves bought from another company are a different act and are not counted here, because paying a market price for barrels is not the same skill as finding them cheaply.

• How much of it is still only a plan? 22%
  A normal share awaiting capital
  Proved undeveloped reserves ÷ total proved reserves
  What this means

  Proved reserves come in two kinds and the difference matters. Developed reserves sit behind wells that already exist. Undeveloped reserves are booked on management's intent to drill them within five years, and turning them into production requires capital the company has not yet spent. A high share is not by itself a fault, since a company with a long drilling inventory has somewhere to put its money, but it does mean the reserve figure describes a plan as much as an asset, and the plan can be revised away.

Graham’s defensive tests · 1 of 3 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

• Adequate size Near
  Revenue ≥ $2B · $1.4B
  What this means

  Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.

• Strong liquidity Pass
  Current ratio ≥ 2× · 3.72×
  What this means

  Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.

• Conservative debt Miss
  Debt ≤ working capital · $2.2B vs $302M WC
  What this means

  Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.

• Moderate price —
  P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
  What this means

  Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $0.87/share (latest year $-0.36), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $23.72/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.