XPOF, Xponential Fitness Inc.

Will it survive?

• Can it pay its interest? 0.4×
  Does not cover its interest
  Operating income $20M ÷ interest expense $49M
  What this means

  A full year of operating profit didn't cover the interest bill. This is the zombie zone: the business depends on refinancing, asset sales, or forbearance to service its debt.

• How heavy is the debt, net of cash? $460M · 23.2× operating profit
  Heavy net debt
  Cash $46M − debt $506M
  What this means

  Netting $46M of cash and short-term investments against $506M of debt leaves $460M owed, about 23.2× a year's operating profit (25.5× on the gross debt, before the cash). Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.

• How long is cash tied up? —
  Not enough data
  What this means

  The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.

Is it a good business?

• Return on invested capital —
  Not enough data
  Industry peers: median -6%
  What this means

  The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.

• Owner-earnings margin 7%
  Solid through the cycle
  7-yr median margin, range -4%–18%; latest $25M = operating cash $28M − maintenance capex $4M
  Industry peers: median 1%
  What this means

  What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 8% of revenue this year, a 7% median across 7 years. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $13M of SBC) leaves $12M.

• Are earnings backed by cash? $28M
  Loss, but cash-generative
  Net income ($39M) · cash from operations $28M
  What this means

  The company reported a net loss, so a conversion ratio isn't meaningful. What matters then is whether operations still threw off cash, here, they did.

How is the cash used?

• Where do the earnings go? 0%
  Reinvests most of it
  Dividends + buybacks $0 ÷ Owner Earnings $25M — this fiscal year
  What this means

  Of $25M Owner Earnings, $0 (0%) went back to shareholders, $0 dividends, $0 buybacks. Returning most of it is the mark of a mature business with little left to reinvest at a high return; reinvesting most could mean a long runway, or empire-building. The split doesn't say which; the return earned on it (see ROIC) does. This year's proportion is 0%; across the record (2019–2025) it is 49%, the capital-allocation section below.

• Investing or harvesting? 0.30×
  Harvesting
  Capex $4M ÷ depreciation & amortization as filed $12M
  What this means

  Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

The promise and the pay packet

• Is the buyback buying ownership, or mopping up? 4.1%
  Stock pay, share count unread
  Stock compensation $13M (fiscal 2025), 4.1% of revenue · no repurchases · the share count is not comparable across these years (a split or a first listing sits in the record), so the drift is withheld
  What this means

  Stock handed to employees is a real cost paid in the owner's own currency: it is charged against profit, but the shares it creates are permanent. Many companies repurchase stock at the same time, which looks like a return of capital and often is not — if the count barely moves, the cash merely cancelled the pay packet and bought the owner nothing. The three states worth telling apart are a count genuinely shrinking, a count standing still despite large repurchases, and a count rising because the issuance was never offset at all.

Graham’s defensive tests · 0 of 4 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

• Adequate size Miss
  Revenue ≥ $2B · $315M
  What this means

  Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.

• Strong liquidity Miss
  Current ratio ≥ 2× · 0.82×
  What this means

  Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.

• Conservative debt Miss
  Debt ≤ working capital · $506M vs ($21M) WC
  What this means

  Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.

• Earnings stability Miss
  A profit every year (7-yr record) · 6 loss years
  What this means

  Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.

• Dividend record —
  Uninterrupted dividends · no dividend line tagged in the data
  What this means

  An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. This record carries no dividends-paid line in any year — common for partnerships, whose distributions file under tags the chain doesn't read — so the criterion is withheld rather than judged on silence.

• Earnings growth —
  Earnings +33% over the record · —
  What this means

  Earnings were negative early in the record, a growth rate isn't meaningful.

• Moderate price —
  P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
  What this means

  Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $-0.93/share (latest year $-0.97), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $-6.78/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.

Durability & moat, 2019–2025

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

• Profitable years 1 of 7
  What this means

  Lost money in 6 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.

• Return on capital ≥ 15% 1 of 4 yrs
  What this means

  A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.

• Operating margin −10% → 0% (3-yr avg ends)
  What this means

  Through the cycle the operating margin widened — about −10% early to 0% lately, median 5% — pricing power intact or improving.

• Reinvestment, incremental ROIC returns capital
  What this means

  The capital base barely grew: this business returns cash through dividends and buybacks rather than reinvesting. Judge it on the cash returned, not on compounding.

• Worst year 2021 · −19.9% op. margin
  What this means

  Operations went underwater in 2021, understand why before trusting the good years.

• Share count +7.6%/yr
  What this means

  The share count is rising, dilution works against you on a per-share basis.