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AVAL, GRUPO AVAL ACCIONES Y VALORES S.A.
A balance-sheet business, read on book value, net interest margin and credit losses rather than an earnings multiple.
The business
What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.
The business in brief
read the 10-K →What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.
- What moves the needle
- Net interest margin, loan losses, and book value. A lender is read on the quality of its balance sheet, not an earnings multiple, and the worst year of credit losses matters more than the best. On its own account, the filing leans hardest on litigation & contingencies, set against the numbers in what the filing emphasizes, below.
- Is it a good business?
- Return on equity has hovered around the cost of equity (median 13%, above 12% in 6 of 10 years). A bank that earns above its cost of equity through the cycle compounds book value; whether this one did it by underwriting discipline or by reaching for risk is what the 10-K, and the worst years in the record, will tell you.
Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.
The record
Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.
Quality & stewardship
Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.
Owner’s Scorecard
Is it a good business?
- Below the cost of equityNet income COP 1.02T ÷ equity COP 17.45TIndustry peers: median 9%
What this means
The bank's north star, what it earns on shareholders' capital. Cost of equity is roughly 10%, so a return durably above that builds value and below it destroys it. One year is noisy; the durability across a full credit cycle is what counts.
- ModestNet income ÷ (equity − goodwill COP 2.22T − intangibles COP 2.76T)Industry peers: median 9%
What this means
The cleaner return, stripping out the goodwill paid for past acquisitions. This is the number a buyer of the whole bank actually earns on the hard capital.
- Efficiency ratio 38%Cost-income, not comparable to the US gradesNoninterest expense COP 4.47T ÷ (net interest income + fees)Industry peers: median 50%
What this means
The share of revenue eaten by running costs. A 20-F/IFRS filer structures its income statement differently from a US bank, so this figure is not comparable to the US thresholds and is shown without a lean/bloated grade — read it against the bank's own history, not across the pool.
Is it sound?
- Capital (equity / assets) 5.3%ThinEquity COP 17.45T ÷ assets COP 327.86T
What this means
A plain-English leverage read: how much of the balance sheet is the owners' own money. This is a rough proxy; the regulatory figure is the CET1 ratio, which is risk-weighted and reported in the filing. The point is the same, how much loss the bank can absorb before depositors are at risk.
- Deposit funding 61%Mostly deposit-fundedDeposits COP 200.87T ÷ assets COP 327.86T
What this means
Low-cost, sticky deposits are a bank's real moat, the cheap raw material it lends out at a spread. A bank funded mostly by deposits earns more durably than one that rents its money in the wholesale market.
- Credit cost (provision / NII) 58%ElevatedProvision for credit losses COP 4.19T ÷ net interest income COP 7.27T
What this means
What the bank set aside this year against loans going bad, as a share of its lending income. This swings hard with the cycle, low in good years and spiking in recessions, so read it across the record, not in one year. Disciplined underwriting shows up as low, stable provisions through a downturn.
The franchise and the credit cycle
- Not enough data
What this means
The deposit mix isn't cleanly tagged in the filings' structured data; the funding read above carries what is.
- Not enough data
What this means
Not derivable from the filings' structured data — some filers carry recoveries only on segment axes, and a gross figure dressed as net would be a wrong number.
All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.
Peers, Banks
The same industry, side by side on the bank lens. Each column names the period it is read over; the group median at the foot is the line to read each figure against.
| Company | Revenuelatest FY, USD | ROEmedian over the record | ROTCEmedian over the record | Efficiencymedian over the record | NII / assetsmedian over the record | Noninterest-bearing sharelatest FY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUFGMitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. | $43.8B | 6% | 7% | 71% | 0.7% | — |
| BCSBarclays PLC | $35.0B | 6% | 7% | — | 0.8% | — |
| NWGNatWest Group plc | $21.8B | 8% | 9% | 40% | 1.2% | — |
| GGALGrupo Financiero Galicia S.A. | $4.3B | 26% | 27% | 27% | 12.2% | — |
| NTBThe Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited | $364M | 19% | 20% | — | 2.5% | — |
| PGCPeapack-Gladstone Financial Corporation | $283M | 9% | 9% | 61% | 2.4% | 22% |
| AVALGRUPO AVAL ACCIONES Y VALORES S.A. | as filed: COP 11.88T | 13% | 22% | 30% | 2.6% | — |
| BMAMacro Bank Inc. | as filed: ARS 2.18T | 24% | 24% | — | 22.3% | — |
| Group median | — | 11% | 15% | 40% | 2.5% | — |
The price
What a price has to assume.
What the price implies
price / tangible bookEnter the home-market price, not the US ADR quote. GRUPO AVAL ACCIONES Y VALORES S.A. reports in COP, and every figure here (owner earnings, book value, the share count) is on that COP, ordinary-share basis. Enter the price on the same basis: the local-exchange quote per ordinary share in COP. A US ADR price in dollars bundles the ADR-to-ordinary ratio and the exchange rate, so it will not reconcile with these figures and would throw the multiple off.
A bank is worth a multiple of its tangible book value, and the multiple it deserves is set by the return it earns on that book. Type today’s price; we show what you would be paying against what GRUPO AVAL ACCIONES Y VALORES S.A.’s record justifies.
Tangible book / share, delivered0%/yr’19→’24
The justified multiple is (return on tangible equity − growth) ÷ (cost of equity − growth). A bank earning exactly its cost of equity is worth about one times tangible book; the premium above that prices each point of durable excess return. A higher cost of equity lowers the justified multiple for a bank.
Enter a price above to run it.
Graham applied the same standards to financial enterprises (Intelligent Investor ch.14): the 15× multiple cap on averaged earnings, and P/E times price-to-book at most 22.5. The gate marks the bargain-hunter’s floor, not a verdict.
A dated snapshot of the price you typed, the assumptions you set, and what the page showed for them. A snapshot is never edited after it is saved. Your notebook is yours alone — the commitment states what is stored and what we will never do.
Tangible book COP 12.47T on 16202M shares, a 22% normalized return on it. The dials set the multiple such a return would justify; your price sets the multiple you are paying. It assumes the bank keeps earning that return; a credit cycle, a rate shock or a bad acquisition changes it, which is what the record and the 10-K are for.
Manual order: ← AURE its page in the Manual AXG →
Industry order: ← AUB the Banks chapter AVBC →